First Order Calculator

Why your first order should be small

The most common mistake new sellers make is ordering too much. A big first order feels efficient — better per-unit pricing, fewer reorders — but it locks cash in inventory you haven't proven will sell. If demand is weaker than expected, you're stuck with dead stock, storage costs, and no cash to pivot.

The right first order covers your lead time plus a small safety buffer. Nothing more. You'll reorder once you have real data.

The formula

• Lead time units = monthly sales ÷ 4 × lead time in weeks
• Safety stock units = monthly sales ÷ 4 × safety weeks
• Raw order = lead time units + safety stock units − current stock
• Recommended order = max(raw order, supplier MOQ)
• Total cash required = order × (unit cost + freight + duties)
• Months of coverage = order ÷ monthly sales

Worked example

100 units/month, 6-week lead time, 4 weeks safety stock, no current stock, $8 unit cost, $1.50 freight, $0.50 duties, MOQ 100.

• Lead time units: (100 ÷ 4) × 6 = 150
• Safety stock: (100 ÷ 4) × 4 = 100
• Raw order: 150 + 100 = 250 units
• MOQ check: 250 > 100 → order 250
• Total cost: 250 × ($8 + $1.50 + $0.50) = $2,500
• Coverage: 250 ÷ 100 = 2.5 months of stock

That is a healthy first order. Not 6 months. Not one month. Enough to cover one replenishment cycle plus buffer.

When MOQ forces your hand

If your calculated order is 80 units but MOQ is 500, you have three options:

1. Order the MOQ. Accept higher inventory and hope it sells.
2. Find another supplier with lower MOQ. Usually means higher per-unit cost.
3. Walk away. If neither cost nor MOQ works, the product isn't viable at your scale.

Most sellers choose option 1 and underestimate the risk. Do the math on months of coverage first. If MOQ gives you more than 6 months of stock, walk away.

Cash requirements beyond the order

The order cost is not the only cash you need. Budget for:

• Order cost — units × per-unit landed cost
• Ad spend to launch — typically 1–2 months of ad budget
• Listing setup — photography, copy, initial SEO
• Buffer — 20% for surprises (customs, packaging, returns)

A $2,500 order with $1,000 launch ads and 20% buffer is $4,200 of real cash required — not $2,500.

When to reorder

Reorder when your remaining stock equals your lead time in sales. For a 6-week lead time at 100/month, reorder when stock drops below 150 units. Not later.

Running out of stock resets rankings, kills review momentum, and hands customers to competitors. Track it.

Common mistakes

• Ordering 6 months of inventory on the first order
• Ignoring freight and duties in the per-unit cost
• Not budgeting ad spend separately
• Using a supplier with a MOQ that forces 12 months of stock
• Reordering too late and going out of stock

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