Scale Stage

Revenue Growth Predictor

Project 12 months of revenue from current MRR, growth, churn, and expansion.

New customers only. 5–15% is realistic for growth stage.

Revenue lost from customers who leave.

Upsells and upgrades from existing customers.

Net growth vs gross growth

The number that actually compounds is net revenue retention: starting revenue, plus expansion, minus churn. A business growing at 10% gross but churning 8% nets only 2% — the slowest kind of growth, because the treadmill is eating the gain.

This calculator models both. Enter gross growth, churn, and expansion separately. The output shows what actually sticks.

The formulas

  • Month-end revenue = last month × (1 + growth) × (1 − churn) × (1 + expansion)
  • Net revenue retention (NRR) = (last month + expansion − churn) ÷ last month
  • Months to target = first month where revenue ≥ target
  • Annualized run rate = final month × 12

Worked example

Starting MRR $2,000, growth 10%, churn 3%, expansion 2%:

  • Month 1: $2,000 × 1.10 × 0.97 × 1.02 = $2,178
  • Month 6: ~$2,900
  • Month 12: ~$4,100
  • Target $10,000 hit around month 24

Now reduce churn from 3% to 1%: month 12 lands at ~$5,100. Same growth, different outcome — because churn compounds against you.

Why retention beats acquisition

Compounding math is unforgiving. Churn is applied to a growing base every month. Reducing churn from 5% to 3% saves roughly 30% of monthly revenue at scale, and the saving compounds. Acquisition adds linear growth; retention adds exponential.

For most small businesses, the highest-leverage investment is reducing churn, not increasing ad spend.

Realistic growth rates

  • Month 1–6: 5–15% monthly (if product-market fit)
  • Month 7–12: 5–10% monthly
  • Year 2: 3–6% monthly
  • Year 3+: 1–3% monthly for mature businesses
  • Above 20% monthly: rare and short-lived. Do not plan on it.

What this model does not include

  • Seasonality
  • One-time revenue (setup fees, launch spikes)
  • Fixed cost growth
  • Marketing efficiency decay (CAC rising as you scale)
  • Non-linear churn (early churn is often higher)
  • Taxes on profit

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Frequently asked questions

How do I project revenue growth?

Start with current monthly revenue, apply monthly growth rate, and subtract churn. Expansion revenue (upsells, upgrades) adds on top.

What is net revenue retention (NRR)?

NRR = (starting revenue + expansion − churn − contraction) ÷ starting revenue. Above 100% means existing customers are growing in value.

What is a realistic monthly growth rate?

Early stage: 10–20%/month. Growth stage: 5–10%. Mature: 1–3%. Anything above 20% for 12+ months is rare.

What is churn?

Churn is the percentage of customers (or revenue) lost per month. 5% monthly churn means you lose 46% of your base in a year.

How important is retention vs acquisition?

Compounding favors retention. Cutting churn from 5% to 3% can add more long-term revenue than doubling acquisition.

Does this predict actual revenue?

No. It is a planning model. Real growth is bumpy, not smooth. Use it to check assumptions, not forecast.

Estimates only. This is a planning model, not a forecast. Real growth is seasonal, lumpy, and influenced by market conditions. Not financial advice. Use alongside your actual analytics.